Las potencias en ascenso y el equilibrio del poder en el siglo xxi

The sudden contraction of the U. S. economy, coupled with the rise of China, India, Brazil and other emerging nations as economic powers, shook up the prevailing post-Cold War world order dominated by the United States. Unlike in the past, there is a distinct absence of traditional power-balancing policies between these countries, yet the question arises, will they remain passive in the face of changes within the international system and what strategies have these rising powers and the United States —as a hegemonic power— adopted in contemporary world politics? In this essay, T. V. Paul notes that both emerging powers and the United States have redefined their security strategies in an attempt to adapt to changing circumstances. This has led them to adopt limited power-balancing policies, i.e. “soft balancing” strategies that provide for intense diplomatic interaction as part of a more general hedging strategy, thereby avoiding confrontation and “hard balancing” tactics that could lead to an escalation of the arms race and the forming of alliances. According to Paul, these changes in the grand strategy of rising powers are, to acertain extent, unprecedented. Not only are they shrouded in a sense of general uncertainty vis-à-vis the nature of power transitions in today’s international system, but because they are not yet complete, it is hard for academics, diplomats and politicians to predict the shape the emerging international system will take in the end or how easy it will be for consolidated powers to assimilate these new ones.